Current scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emission in Bangladesh.

Abstract

Statement of the Problem: There is an increasing trend of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Worldwide due to human activities which indicates a substantial increase in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) (EPA, 2014). The most recent year of GHG emissions from various sectors in Bangladesh’s shown that Agriculture is the leading contributor, with 39% of total emissions. The energy sector is the second highest emitter with the order of electricity and heat production  33%. Energy consumption is increasing due to the expansion of economic activity and population size which results higher GHG emission worldwide. The study has examined the trends of energy consumption and CO2 emission in Bangladesh using the secondary data extracted from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank database. Each greenhouse gas has a various capacities to cause global warming, depending on its radioactive properties, molecular weight and the length of time it remains in the atmosphere.

Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: This study was conducted by secondary data collected from different industries and relevant Government and Non-Government organizations in Bangladesh. Simple statistical methods were applied to analyze the GHG data.

Findings: The most recent year of GHG emissions from various sectors in Bangladesh’s shown that agriculture is the leading contributor, with 39% of total emissions. The energy sector is the second highest emitter with the order of electricity and heat production (33%), other fuel combustion (21%), manufacturing and construction (20%), and transportation (14%). Among the other sectors land-use change and forestry and solid waste represent the third and fourth highest emitters, accounting for 31% and 18%, respectively. Though the mean annual emission of GHG comparing to the global average is 0.4% which is more than 200 times lower than the developed countries. The results of the study showed that Bangladesh’s emissions grew 59% from 1990 to 2012. The mean annual change during this in industrial processes (IP) (17%).

Conclusion & Significance: The yearly average growth of CO2 emission has estimated by 6.7% which is higher that the annual average growth of GDP and energy consumption as of 5.25% and 4.77% respectively. This situation calls for serious attention of the country for reducing CO2 emission. Therefore, government needs to develop a national mitigation plan / policy and promote the use and development of green technology, renewable energy and green growth for sustainable energy and environment in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Climate, GHG Emissions, Energy Consumption, CO2 Emission, Trend, Climate Change Mitigation Measures, Indigenous Knowledge, etc.

Introduction :

A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs infrared radiation (IR) and radiates heat in all directions. Greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere absorb IR from the sun. They include Carbon Dioxide (CO₂), Methane (CH₄), Nitrous Oxide (NO₂), and Water Vapour. Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) is the highest potential for Global Warming, burning of fossil fuels by motor vehicles, Industries.

Carbon dioxide sources which is released through anthropogenic activities are:

(1). Fossil Fuel Burring: Solid source (like- Coal), Liquid source (Oil), Gaseous source (Natural gas).

(2). Industry (Cement industry),

(3). Transportations,

(4). Domestic (Cooking),

(5). International Burring of funniest.

Bangladesh is a South Asian developing country covering an area of 147,570 sq. km. Its population is 164.7 million (2017) with a very low per capita Gross Domestic Product, i.e., $497.63 dollars (US) (2017).  Bangladesh, to the east of India on the Bay of Bengal, is a South Asian country marked by lush greenery and many waterways. "The country of Bengal" officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a country in South Asia. Total CO₂ emissions from large point sources in Bangladesh recorded in the IEAGHG R&D programme database amount to some 17 Mt CO₂. The electrical power generation sector has the largest sectorial anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in Bangladesh which amount to 15.6 Mt CO₂.

Geologically, this low-lying deltaic country formed mainly by the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna river system. It is bordered on the west, north and east by India, on the southeast by Myanmar and on the south by the Bay of Bengal.

Geographical location of Bangladesh :

Background :

Emission of Green House Gas (GHG) accounts the interplay between the economy and the environment with respect to air emissions for assessing whether current production and consumption activities are on a sustainable path of development. Each greenhouse gas has a various capacities to cause global warming, depending on its radioactive properties, molecular weight and the length of time it remains in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) is the unit of measurement which allows different greenhouse gases to be compared on a like for like basis relative to one unit of CO₂. For any quantity and type of greenhouse gas,CO2e signifies the amount of CO2 which would have the equivalent global warming impact. CO₂e emissions are calculated by multiplying the emissions of each of the six greenhouse gases by its 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP).

Aims & Objectives :

* Determining the GHG emission in different sectors in Bangladesh.

* Determining the emission scenarios of Regional and Global context.

* Comparing the emission of Bangladesh and Global context.

* To find out the indigenous knowledge to mitigation Global Warming & Environmental Pollution.

Methods and Materials :

The study has based on the secondary date sources where the most of the data have been extracted from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank database (World Bank, 2015c).

q   Different industries and relevant Government and

q    Non-Government organizations in Bangladesh. Simple statistical methods were applied to analyse the GHG data.

GHG Sources :

—  Scope 1 Fuel Combustion:- Emissions from sources owned or controlled by the reporting company, e.g. generators, refrigeration, air-conditioning units. 

—  Scope 2 Purchase Electricity:- Emissions associated with the consumption of purchased electricity, heat or steam from a source that is not owned or controlled by the reporting company, e.g. an electricity utility like DESCO.

—  Scope 3 : Direct and Indirect Emissions Under the GHG Protocol, emissions are categorised as ‘direct’ when they are generated from activities or sources within the reporting company’s organisational boundary and which the company owns or controls. ‘Indirect’ sources are those emissions related to the company’s activities that are emitted from sources owned or controlled by another company, e.g. purchased electricity, rental cars, commercial airlines or paper.

Results & Analysis :

Source: WRI CAIT 20, 2015, FAOSTAT, 2015

Energy consumption in Bangladesh :

Bangladesh is the country where Natural Gas is a major supplier of fulfilling the energy demand. The other sources of energy in Bangladesh are Oil / Petroleum, Coal, Hydro and Renewable Energy.

Energy Sources According to Planning Commission (2010),

Gas has contributed = 87.1% of the total Energy in 2010 where

Oil = 6%,

Coal = 3.7%,

Hydro = 2.7% and

Renewable has provided = 0.5%.

CO₂ Sources in Bangladesh :

Total CO₂ emissions from large point sources in Bangladesh recorded in the IEAGHG R&D programme database amount to some 17 Mt CO₂. The electrical power generation sector has the largest sectorial anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in Bangladesh which amount to 15.6 Mt CO₂. Most power generation is fuelled by natural gas (81%) and diesel, and there is a small contribution from hydro. In recent years a coal-based power station has been built close to the Barapukuria coal mine in NW Bangladesh and more are planned. Nevertheless, all power projects under construction are natural gas-based and located in the eastern part of the country.

The other major point sources are the two large cement works and the refinery at Chittagong.

The 20 largest point sources of CO₂ in Bangladesh :

No.	Sector	Installation name	Latitude	Longitude	Estimated annual CO2 emissions (kilotons)	Status
1	Power	Ghorasal	23.93	90.63	4731	Open
2	Power	Barapukuria	25.53	88.97	2075	Open
3	Power	Ashuganj	24.03	91.02	1502	Open
4	Refinery	Eastern Refinery Ltd	22	92	983	Open
5	Power	Haripur Barge	24.88	88.72	980	Open
6	Power	Khulna	22.78	89.5	938	Open
7	Power	Chittagong	22	92	914	Open
8	Power	Haripur AES	24.88	88.72	653	Open
9	Power	Shajibazar	24.95	92.02	631	Open
10	Power	Shiddhirganj	23.68	90.52	631	Open
11	Power	Maghnaghat-1	23.47	90.82	490	Open
12	Power	Golapara	22.6	90.22	479	Open
13	Power	Maghnaghat-2	23.47	90.82	392	Open
14	Power	Dhaka	23.72	90.41	327	Open
15	Cement	Lafarge Surma Cement	24.05	91.08	262	Open
16	Power	Barisal Unocal	22.7	90.37	261	Open
17	Power	Haripur	24.88	88.72	218	Open
18	Power	Fenchuganj	24.88	91.87	182	Open
19	Power	Baghabari	28.29	89.63	181	Open
20	Cement	Chatak Cement	25.07	91.4	101	Open

Type of Sectors :

1. POWER

The state-owned Bangladesh Power Development Board initially owned all the power stations in Bangladesh. However, from 1998 private power companies (Independent Power Producers, IPP) started supplying power to the national grid. Additionally, the Rural Electrification Board owns one power station which also provides power to the national grid. Most of the power stations are gas-based steam turbine generators and high speed diesel-based gas turbines. Later combined cycle gas turbines were established. In 2005-06 Bangladesh’s first coal-based power plant was put into operation, at Barapukuria in Dinajpur, based on the coal from Barapukuria Coal Mine.

The present installed generation capacity is 5275 MW. However, there is always a power shortage in the country. Indigenous gas-based generation is 4301MW (81.54%), hydro capacity is 230MW (4.36%), liquid fuel-based capacity is 494MW (9.36%), and coal-based generation is 250MW (4.74%), (Source BPDB).

Annual CO₂ emissions from gas-based plant in 2006 are estimated at 15.071 Mt. A few units always remain out of the grid due to maintenance.

The national power sector plan, drawn up in 1995, indicates that, after installation of new gas-based power plant, in 2020 the power generation capacity of gas-based plants is expected to stand at 6150 MW and the estimated CO₂ emission will be 21.55 Mt.

In Bangladesh, power plants typically comprise several ‘units’, in many cases burning different fossil fuels. Where a unit generates power utilizing dual-fuel combustion, the power produced in KWh by each type of fuel have been separated, and the relevant emissions factor used. The highest capacity single gas-fired units are 450 MW and the smallest is 20 MW. Power generation using diesel is mainly used in standby generators in industries and commercial buildings. The estimated installed capacity is reported to be around 1500 MW. It is difficult to calculate emissions as these units do not run on a continuous basis and operational data is not readily available. It must however, be emphasized that due to the acute power shortage in the country, local generation will be increased steadily and in the future will be a significant emitter that will have to be taken in consideration.

The general convention for calculating CO₂ emissions from the burning of fossil fuels for the production of electricity involves multiplying the appropriate emission factor by the production of electricity of each power plant in KWh. The de-rated power plants of capacity between 800-900 MW contribute significantly more CO₂ than the recently built Combined Cycle Plants.

2. FERTILIZER

There are 10 fertilizer plants in Bangladesh of which seven produce Urea, one TSP and two DAP. The CO₂ generation from the process is very small and therefore their contribution to national emissions is negligible.

Each of the plants has its own in-house power generation unit but these are generally small, ranging between 16-24 MW. They are used primarily to run critical units. The contribution to national CO₂emissions from these units is small. A very few SSP type fertilizer plants are in operation but these do not have large in-house power generation facilities.

In 2004, natural gas consumption in the fertilizer sector was 12821 million m³ (source BCIC).

3. CEMENT

With over 13 plants scattered over the country, the Bangladesh cement industry produced 4.6 million tons of Portland cement in 2006.

Calcination takes place in two plants only. Both of them are located in the Sylhet area (NE Bangladesh). The Chattak Cement Co. Limited has capacity of 150,000 T/yr and Surma Lafarge Cement Limited has 600,000 T/yr.

There are 11 other units which import clinker from abroad and grind it in Bangladesh. The non-clinker-producing plants’ contribution to national CO₂ emissions is insignificant.

CO₂ emissions from the cement sector are estimated to be between 438-648 Ktn/Yr.

4. REFINERY

Bangladesh has one oil refinery consisting of two relatively small capacity units. The existing refinery has about 1.5 million tones refining capacity. Its existing units produce 665kt and 318kt CO₂ per year respectively. An additional refinery may be established on the same premises by 2010. When the planned bigger capacity unit is installed CO₂ generation will be more than doubled, because the present capacity meets only 33% of the country’s requirements and the new unit is planned to meet the country’s full oil demand.

5. HEAVY INDUSTRY

Apart from the sectors described above, there is very little heavy industry in Bangladesh. The main industrial growth is in the ready-made garments and textile sector. The small iron and steel industry consumes some gas but its contribution to national CO₂ emissions is thought to be insignificant.

6. BRICK FIELDS:

In Bangladesh bricks are produced using coal or firewood as fuel. Brick manufacture is seasonal, taking place in the winter, and disseminated through the whole country, although there is a concentration of kilns around Dhaka. There is no data available on carbon dioxide emissions from these kilns.

Climate Change Mitigation Targets and Plans :

q   Bangladesh’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), published in September 2015, puts forth an unconditional contribution to reduce GHG emissions by 5% from business as usual levels by 2030 (12 MtCO2e) from power, transportation, and industry.

q   It pledges to increase its contribution to 15% reduction (36 MtCO2e), subject to international support, and pledges further mitigation actions in other sectors, also subject to additional international resources

Major policy recommendation towards reducing emission in Bangladesh :

• To formulate an extensive national mitigation plan / policy and nationally appropriate mitigation actions towards establishing a low carbon society.

• Modify the existing strategies, plans and policies relating to the sustainable energy use.

• To stimulate the use of cleaner fuel, renewable energy, solar energy, wind energy and biomass energy.

• To introduce eco-labelling technique for the industry towards emissions reduction.

• To ensure the proper implementation of projects with transparency and accountability.

• To promote Research and Development related to green energy, green technology, renewable energy and energy efficiency.

• To ensure regular inspection and monitoring of the industry and power plant for maintaining the level of Emission.

Summaries the initiatives taken in Bangladesh for addressing emission and climate change :

Greenhouse gas emissions for the World and top 10 emitting countries and regions,1 2005 and 2013

Source: World Resources Institute (2017) CAIT Climate Data Explorer.

Conclusion :

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change effect due to Global Warming. It has found that there is an increasing trend of CO₂ emission which is higher than the energy and GDP growth of Bangladesh. This situation demands major attention for reducing CO ₂ emission as most of the countries agreed to reduce GHGs emission in the 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen, 2009 towards maintaining Global temperature by below 2°C by 2100. Effective mitigation strategies are essential to reduce the increasing rate of CO₂ emissions in Bangladesh.

Therefore, the country needs to develop a national mitigation plan / policy and promote and implement nationally appropriate mitigation strategies as well as negotiations with the global partners and developed countries for funding, technology and technical knowledge building.

Acknowledgement :

First of all, I would like to give my sincere thanks to the Almighty Allah for giving me the strength and patience to complete my research work and furnished this report. Throughout the research work and in the preparation and completion of the report I have the immense pleasure to express my deepest sense of gratitude, sincere appreciation, indebtedness and best regards to my Supervisor Dr. Mohammad Amir Hossain Bhuiyan, Professor and Chairman, Department of Environmental Science, Jahangirnagar University for his enthusiastic guidance, supervision, valuable instruction, constant inspiration; constructive, comments at different stage of this research.

Finally, I am grateful to my parents & family members for their moral support.

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